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Who is leaving Britain and what it costs to stay

The social contract in numbers

Six official measures of who pays into the UK state, who gets more back and the pressures ahead. Each panel shows its source and when it next updates.

The six panels use official releases available on . The Budget forecast context below was added on 28 October 2026.

The OBR October 2026 forecast, detailed receipts table 4.18, estimates that frozen thresholds bring 6.75 million more people into income tax and 5.42 million more into the higher-rate band by 2030-31, compared with inflation-linked thresholds. These are forecasts, not observed counts. Download the OBR receipts tables.

The ONS figures measure people living in households that receive more in cash benefits and public services than they pay in taxes over one year. They describe the household balance, not each person's own tax and benefit balance or lifetime contribution.

Income tax shares by income group

27.2%

In 2023-24, the top 1% of income tax payers had 12.4% of income and paid 27.2% of income tax.

Groups overlap and rank income tax payers by income before deductions and allowances. These shares exclude National Insurance, VAT and other taxes.

The HMRC projections shown here still use the March 2026 OBR forecast. HMRC has not issued a replacement table with the October Budget.

Who pays income tax in the UK? · Your tax receipt

People in households that get back more than they pay

53.3%

In 2023-24, 53.3% of people lived in households receiving more in cash benefits and public services than they paid in direct and indirect taxes.

Benefits minus taxes by income decile, 2023-24

A decile is one tenth of the people in each group, ranked by household disposable income adjusted for household size. The amounts below are mean household amounts experienced by people, in pounds per year. Positive means benefits exceed taxes. They are not individual tax bills or net-recipient shares. ONS Table 2b is under review for future publications.

Show benefits and taxes by decile
DecileAll peopleNon-retiredRetired
1 (lowest income)about £24,080about £26,458about £15,679
2about £21,972about £20,673about £19,051
3about £15,599about £15,142about £19,214
4about £14,104about £9,356about £21,209
5about £7,988about £531about £25,285
6about £4,960about minus £257about £24,770
7about minus £2,401about minus £7,838about £23,125
8about minus £11,232about minus £15,471about £20,449
9about minus £16,818about minus £20,232about £15,087
10 (highest income)about minus £57,777about minus £65,337about £4,905
All decilesabout £47about minus £3,697about £18,877

Source: ONS Effects of taxes and benefits on household income, FYE 2024 reference tables. Released . Next release: Provisionally December 2026; exact day not announced.

Long-term sickness inactivity, work and health benefits

2,738,000

In June to August 2026, 2,738,000 people aged 16 to 64 were inactive mainly because of long-term sickness.

30,280,860 payrolled employees in September 2026: early estimate, subject to revision. UK, seasonally adjusted, excludes self-employment.

Source: ONS and HMRC PAYE Real Time Information, October 2026, Table 1. Released . Next release: .

3,560,770 people on Universal Credit health in June 2026, Great Britain. DWP says much of the rise reflects people moving from Employment and Support Allowance (ESA). UC health includes people awaiting assessment and those assessed as having limited capability for work.

Source: DWP Universal Credit Health statistics to June 2026, data tables. Released . Next release: .

4,100,000 Personal Independence Payment (PIP) claims with entitlement on 31 July 2026, rounded to 0.1 million. England and Wales, including abroad and unknown cases under DWP's coverage convention. Scottish Adult Disability Payment is outside this coverage. PIP can be claimed while working.

Source: DWP Personal Independence Payment statistics to July 2026. Released . Next release: .

These measures overlap and cover different populations. Their counts cannot be added.

Public sector net worth and net debt

minus £745.3bn

At the end of September 2026, recorded public sector liabilities exceeded financial and non-financial assets by £745.3bn.

Source: ONS Public sector finances, September 2026. Released . Next release: .

Net worth means assets less liabilities. Net debt deducts liquid financial assets from debt liabilities. Unfunded future State Pension payments are outside this balance sheet.

Central government net interest payable by financial year

About values, summed from monthly ONS observations. This is central government net interest, not total public sector debt interest.

Show annual net interest
Financial yearNet interest (£bn)
2005-06about 27.8
2006-07about 30.8
2007-08about 33.7
2008-09about 33.5
2009-10about 33.7
2010-11about 48.7
2011-12about 52.2
2012-13about 50.7
2013-14about 50.4
2014-15about 46.5
2015-16about 46.3
2016-17about 49.9
2017-18about 56.1
2018-19about 50.2
2019-20about 50.3
2020-21about 41.0
2021-22about 71.0
2022-23about 107.8
2023-24about 83.0
2024-25about 85.3
2025-26about 96.8

Source: ONS Public sector finances, NMFX. Released . Next release: .

Age groups and projected public spending

about 3.6

About 3.6 working-age people per pension-age person now, using the ONS mid-2024 base estimate. These are age groups, not workers or State Pension recipients.

Source: ONS National population projections 2024-based, UK principal summary, PERSONS Table 3. Released . Next release: Not announced.

ONS old-age dependency ratio

Pension-age people per 1,000 working-age people. Working age starts at 16 and pension age follows current legislation.

Show old-age dependency ratios
PeriodPension-age people per 1,000Basis
mid-2024279.7ONS base estimate
mid-2050332.2ONS principal projection
mid-2070412.0ONS principal projection

Source: ONS National population projections 2024-based, UK principal summary, PERSONS Table 3. Released . Next release: Not announced.

OBR pension-age assumptions differ from ONS assumptions. The ONS ratios and OBR spending projection should not be spliced into a single scenario.

This July long-term baseline does not automatically update at the Budget. The next long-term report date is not announced.

Mean income tax paid by higher earners

about £116,000

HMRC's published mean income tax liability per additional-rate taxpayer was about £116,000 in 2023-24.

The top 1% mean was about £203,100 in 2023-24. HMRC's published additional-rate mean for 2026-27 is about £107,000 (projection). These are income-ranked taxpayer groups, not salary-only groups.

Non-domiciled taxpayer groups, 2024-25

Show non-domiciled taxpayer groups
GroupTaxpayersIncome tax (£m)Income tax, CGT and NICs (£m)
Non-domiciled only73,4006,9469,682
Non-domiciled plus deemed domiciled81,9009,63613,592

CGT means Capital Gains Tax. NICs means National Insurance contributions. The combined group includes the non-domiciled-only group; do not add the rows. Neither row is remittance-basis-only.

Source: HMRC Non-domiciled taxpayers in the UK, NONDOMTABLES. Released . Next release: Final update in 2027; exact day not announced.

Means do not estimate tax lost on departure. The leavers tracker records sourced reports and does not estimate any person's tax.

HMRC's income tax tables still use the March forecast and next update in May/June 2027.

Download the social contract data

Press resources, citation wording and Index embed.

Sources and method

Each panel links to its official sources and release dates. Derived figures show their formulas and use matching periods. Missing observations stay as gaps. Forecasts and estimates are labelled separately from outturns. The panels measure different populations and should not be added together.

Budget 2026 tracker · Site method