The social contract in numbers
Six official measures of who pays into the UK state, who gets more back and the pressures ahead. Each panel shows its source and when it next updates.
The six panels use official releases available on . The Budget forecast context below was added on 28 October 2026.
The OBR October 2026 forecast, detailed receipts table 4.18, estimates that frozen thresholds bring 6.75 million more people into income tax and 5.42 million more into the higher-rate band by 2030-31, compared with inflation-linked thresholds. These are forecasts, not observed counts. Download the OBR receipts tables.
The ONS figures measure people living in households that receive more in cash benefits and public services than they pay in taxes over one year. They describe the household balance, not each person's own tax and benefit balance or lifetime contribution.
Income tax shares by income group
27.2%
In 2023-24, the top 1% of income tax payers had 12.4% of income and paid 27.2% of income tax.
Groups overlap and rank income tax payers by income before deductions and allowances. These shares exclude National Insurance, VAT and other taxes.
The HMRC projections shown here still use the March 2026 OBR forecast. HMRC has not issued a replacement table with the October Budget.
People in households that get back more than they pay
53.3%
In 2023-24, 53.3% of people lived in households receiving more in cash benefits and public services than they paid in direct and indirect taxes.
Benefits minus taxes by income decile, 2023-24
A decile is one tenth of the people in each group, ranked by household disposable income adjusted for household size. The amounts below are mean household amounts experienced by people, in pounds per year. Positive means benefits exceed taxes. They are not individual tax bills or net-recipient shares. ONS Table 2b is under review for future publications.
Show benefits and taxes by decile
| Decile | All people | Non-retired | Retired |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (lowest income) | about £24,080 | about £26,458 | about £15,679 |
| 2 | about £21,972 | about £20,673 | about £19,051 |
| 3 | about £15,599 | about £15,142 | about £19,214 |
| 4 | about £14,104 | about £9,356 | about £21,209 |
| 5 | about £7,988 | about £531 | about £25,285 |
| 6 | about £4,960 | about minus £257 | about £24,770 |
| 7 | about minus £2,401 | about minus £7,838 | about £23,125 |
| 8 | about minus £11,232 | about minus £15,471 | about £20,449 |
| 9 | about minus £16,818 | about minus £20,232 | about £15,087 |
| 10 (highest income) | about minus £57,777 | about minus £65,337 | about £4,905 |
| All deciles | about £47 | about minus £3,697 | about £18,877 |
Source: ONS Effects of taxes and benefits on household income, FYE 2024 reference tables. Released . Next release: Provisionally December 2026; exact day not announced.
Long-term sickness inactivity, work and health benefits
2,738,000
In June to August 2026, 2,738,000 people aged 16 to 64 were inactive mainly because of long-term sickness.
30,280,860 payrolled employees in September 2026: early estimate, subject to revision. UK, seasonally adjusted, excludes self-employment.
Source: ONS and HMRC PAYE Real Time Information, October 2026, Table 1. Released . Next release: .
3,560,770 people on Universal Credit health in June 2026, Great Britain. DWP says much of the rise reflects people moving from Employment and Support Allowance (ESA). UC health includes people awaiting assessment and those assessed as having limited capability for work.
Source: DWP Universal Credit Health statistics to June 2026, data tables. Released . Next release: .
4,100,000 Personal Independence Payment (PIP) claims with entitlement on 31 July 2026, rounded to 0.1 million. England and Wales, including abroad and unknown cases under DWP's coverage convention. Scottish Adult Disability Payment is outside this coverage. PIP can be claimed while working.
Source: DWP Personal Independence Payment statistics to July 2026. Released . Next release: .
These measures overlap and cover different populations. Their counts cannot be added.
Public sector net worth and net debt
minus £745.3bn
At the end of September 2026, recorded public sector liabilities exceeded financial and non-financial assets by £745.3bn.
Source: ONS Public sector finances, September 2026. Released . Next release: .
Net worth means assets less liabilities. Net debt deducts liquid financial assets from debt liabilities. Unfunded future State Pension payments are outside this balance sheet.
Central government net interest payable by financial year
About values, summed from monthly ONS observations. This is central government net interest, not total public sector debt interest.
Show annual net interest
| Financial year | Net interest (£bn) |
|---|---|
| 2005-06 | about 27.8 |
| 2006-07 | about 30.8 |
| 2007-08 | about 33.7 |
| 2008-09 | about 33.5 |
| 2009-10 | about 33.7 |
| 2010-11 | about 48.7 |
| 2011-12 | about 52.2 |
| 2012-13 | about 50.7 |
| 2013-14 | about 50.4 |
| 2014-15 | about 46.5 |
| 2015-16 | about 46.3 |
| 2016-17 | about 49.9 |
| 2017-18 | about 56.1 |
| 2018-19 | about 50.2 |
| 2019-20 | about 50.3 |
| 2020-21 | about 41.0 |
| 2021-22 | about 71.0 |
| 2022-23 | about 107.8 |
| 2023-24 | about 83.0 |
| 2024-25 | about 85.3 |
| 2025-26 | about 96.8 |
Source: ONS Public sector finances, NMFX. Released . Next release: .
Age groups and projected public spending
about 3.6
About 3.6 working-age people per pension-age person now, using the ONS mid-2024 base estimate. These are age groups, not workers or State Pension recipients.
Source: ONS National population projections 2024-based, UK principal summary, PERSONS Table 3. Released . Next release: Not announced.
ONS old-age dependency ratio
Pension-age people per 1,000 working-age people. Working age starts at 16 and pension age follows current legislation.
Show old-age dependency ratios
| Period | Pension-age people per 1,000 | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| mid-2024 | 279.7 | ONS base estimate |
| mid-2050 | 332.2 | ONS principal projection |
| mid-2070 | 412.0 | ONS principal projection |
Source: ONS National population projections 2024-based, UK principal summary, PERSONS Table 3. Released . Next release: Not announced.
OBR pension-age assumptions differ from ONS assumptions. The ONS ratios and OBR spending projection should not be spliced into a single scenario.
This July long-term baseline does not automatically update at the Budget. The next long-term report date is not announced.
Mean income tax paid by higher earners
about £116,000
HMRC's published mean income tax liability per additional-rate taxpayer was about £116,000 in 2023-24.
The top 1% mean was about £203,100 in 2023-24. HMRC's published additional-rate mean for 2026-27 is about £107,000 (projection). These are income-ranked taxpayer groups, not salary-only groups.
Non-domiciled taxpayer groups, 2024-25
Show non-domiciled taxpayer groups
| Group | Taxpayers | Income tax (£m) | Income tax, CGT and NICs (£m) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-domiciled only | 73,400 | 6,946 | 9,682 |
| Non-domiciled plus deemed domiciled | 81,900 | 9,636 | 13,592 |
CGT means Capital Gains Tax. NICs means National Insurance contributions. The combined group includes the non-domiciled-only group; do not add the rows. Neither row is remittance-basis-only.
Source: HMRC Non-domiciled taxpayers in the UK, NONDOMTABLES. Released . Next release: Final update in 2027; exact day not announced.
Means do not estimate tax lost on departure. The leavers tracker records sourced reports and does not estimate any person's tax.
HMRC's income tax tables still use the March forecast and next update in May/June 2027.
Download the social contract data
- Who pays Income Tax CSV
- Household net contributors CSV
- Work and health CSV
- Public balance sheet CSV
- Ageing and spending CSV
- Higher-earner tax CSV
Press resources, citation wording and Index embed.
Sources and method
Each panel links to its official sources and release dates. Derived figures show their formulas and use matching periods. Missing observations stay as gaps. Forecasts and estimates are labelled separately from outturns. The panels measure different populations and should not be added together.